Forty degrees in the shade. The Azores anticyclone prepares a more than caliente climate for Formula 1, which arrives on Friday 30 September 1988 in Spain for the first qualifying round of the Grand Prix. Men and cars are in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, in Andalusia, a land of beating sun and heavy wines. The World Championship comes to this strong environment at a very delicate moment. Alain Prost beat Ayrton Senna in Portugal and returned to the top of the World Championship. In reality, the situation has not changed much, at least in practical terms. Senna is still the arbiter of the championship thanks to a regulation, fair or unfair, according to which only eleven points can be accumulated. Therefore, having accumulated ten, against his rival's eleven, the Brazilian still has a considerable advantage. But let's take a rough look - with three races still to go the possibilities are many - at what the two title candidates' chances will be, bearing in mind any interfering factors. Such as Scuderia Ferrari and the emerging naturally aspirated cars. The maximum ceiling achievable by Alain Prost, currently at 81, is 90 points (achievable with three victories with which he would replace as many second places, thus adding a total of 9 points). In this case the Frenchman would be World Champion as Ayrton Senna with three hypothetical second place finishes would reach a maximum of 87. It is clear, however, that Alain Prost could win the title even with less, should his opponent be forced to drop out or finish sixth. But perhaps it is more understandable to analyse the situation taking Ayrton Senna as a basis. The South American would in any case only need to obtain a win and a fourth place, as he would arrive at 87: this would also be the maximum score achievable by his team-mate, who would, however, lose by having one less win. As a result, Alain Prost was practically obliged to win in order to keep his hopes up. The Frenchman, for the first time, after implicitly criticising Ayrton Senna's actions in the early stages of the Portuguese Grand Prix, was also polemical towards Honda who supply McLaren's engines.
"Everything went well at Estorti. But it was the first time the engine worked perfectly after several months. You all saw how Senna overtook me in the straights at Monza and Spa. He seemed to have at least 70-80 more HP at his disposal. And I always had problems in five or six races. I can't understand why everything always went well for Ayrton".
The accounts, however, will also have to be made bearing in mind the ambitions of the other teams. One of these is Scuderia Ferrari, which with Gerhard Berger could have established itself in Portugal. However, it is not clear how the Austrian could have arrived at the finish line holding certain rhythms, when Michele Alboreto, who was travelling less fast, ran out of petrol on the very last lap. The fact remains that the Ferrari is more competitive. One should no longer be surprised if the Maranello cars are not particularly brilliant in qualifying. The engineers and drivers work mainly for the race, knowing full well that they do not have qualifying engines. Last year on the Spanish track both Maranello cars had engine problems, but were competitive. It is therefore to be expected that the McLaren drivers will not be able to have a quiet race. Theoretically, the narrow and winding circuit that allows slow averages should give the naturally aspirated cars a chance. In 1987 almost all competitors with turbocharged single-seaters had to stop in the pits to change tyres. Now the situation has changed as the supercharged cars have less power and therefore less tyre wear. But if the great heat of these days continues, surprises are not excluded. The two Marchs of Ivan Capelli and Mauricio Gugelmin, the Williams of Nigel Mansell and Riccardo Patrese, and the Benettons of Alessandro Nannini and Thierry Boutsen pose a real threat, a front that Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna will have to take into account in their personal battle. In Portugal Alessandro Nannini, forced to make an immediate pit stop to replace his wing, and Riccardo Patrese, driving a car with electrical problems, were almost immediately put out of the fight. And they are the ones seeking redemption. Having said that, on Friday 30 September 1988 chaos reigns supreme in Formula 1 after the first practice session of the Spanish Grand Prix. Tensions, confusion, controversy characterise the day, dominated once again by McLaren-Honda and Ayrton Senna. If the Brazilian's best time was a common factor in previous races, never in the course of the season had there been so many disconcerting episodes, some of which were certainly caused by the stress of a long and tiring championship and the battle for the world title.
To summarise: Alain Prost loses his patience with a French journalist, openly threatening him, Ayrton Senna says that he comes to the track to race and not to stir up arguments, Goodyear brings new rear tyres that put more than one car in crisis, Thierry Boutsen's Benetton is taken off the time sheets because of an oversized wing, and finally the Scuderia Ferrari confirms that it is doing badly in qualifying, as Gerhard Berger is ninth and Michele Alboreto is even twenty-first. It had been said that the idyllic atmosphere between Alain Prost and Ayrton Senna could not continue, precisely for competitive reasons. When it comes to the showdown, rivalries, even between teammates, are inevitable. The two had already demonstrated this on the track in the Portuguese Grand Prix, with those thrilling starts. And if the Frenchman and the Brazilian try to play it down, the media take advantage to exacerbate the clash. Thus Alain Prost confronts a reporter from L'Equipe accusing him of misrepresenting some statements in which he criticised Honda engines.
"I was talking to Johansson, you misunderstood and wrote exactly the opposite of what I said".
Words accompanied by a shove and threats if official denials are not published. Ayrton Senna, elsewhere, states:
"I don't want to talk any more, I'm here to race, to think about the cars, about the championship. There is too much talk, it's time to stop it".
Press silence, then, all right, all perfect. But we want to see what will happen at the first corner, should the two McLarens find themselves next to each other. And we come to the technical part. Goodyear has brought new rear tyres to Jerez which, in the intentions, should provide better grip and more traction. But almost all the drivers complain, claiming that they seem to be back in the days of qualifying tyres, the ones that only lasted one lap. So the timed session ends up being somewhat distorted, so much so that Nigel Mansell, who had set the best time in the morning in the Williams, fails to repeat it in the afternoon. Then there is the surprise represented by the car of Thierry Boutsen, who had set the second fastest time behind Ayrton Senna. The scrutineers find the front wing of the Benetton too low, closer to the ground than the flat bottom, and therefore outlawed, and the Belgian is taken out of the classification. Finally the Scuderia Ferrari. By now we are used to the Maranello team's misadventures in the first hours of practice. But this time things go worse than usual. Gerhard Berger is stopped on the track due to the failure of an electric cable. The Austrian returns to the pit box and climbs into the reserve car, which in Spain is driven by Michele Alboreto. While fixing the car, practice is suspended due to a spin by Stefano Modena and the Austrian manages to recover his single-seater. Back on the track, however, he encounters problems with the engine, which does not run properly. In essence he only completed six laps. Gerhard Berger would have liked to get back into the reserve car, but it was rearranged for his team-mate and the Austrian driver was stuck. Michele Alboreto, struggling with set-ups that do not work, continues to make changes and at the end scores a time 0.7 seconds slower than in free practice. And the overall result for the Maranello cars is all the more curious considering that small teams like Minardi with Pierluigi Martini (tenth) and Scuderia Italia with Alex Caffi (eleventh, although ill) find their way to the top of the time charts. Even Ligier managed to place Stefan Johansson in the middle of the grid. On Saturday, 1 September 1988, fortunately, everything can change. The following day Ayrton Senna insists, Alain Prost does not give up. The two will start on the front row, one next to the other, at the start of the Spanish Grand Prix. On the right the Brazilian, alone with his cold determination, on the left the Frenchman accompanied by fears and hopes. The Jerez race could offer Ayrton Senna the decisive lunge, even if his eventual victory would not give him the mathematical certainty of the title. While Alain Prost, on the other hand, must seek a full victory to continue the battle to the end. Once again two McLarens in front, then. For Senna it is the twelfth pole position of the season, a new absolute record.
The South American has to work hard to get the best time: 1'24"067 on the lap, at an average of 180.627 km/h, just 0.067 seconds more, a trifle, for his team-mate. It was a battle within a battle that the two rivals were forced to engage in not so much to beat each other as to fend off the attack of the unrestrained group of drivers with naturally aspirated cars, led by Nigel Mansell, third 0.2 seconds behind Ayrton Senna. And that is precisely the dominant motif of the race. The possible inclusion in the fight between Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost of outsiders, Nigel Mansell, Thierry Boutsen (who in 1989 would be replaced at Benetton by Englishman Johnny Herbert, coming from Formula 3000), Alessandro Nannini and Ivan Capelli. For the first time in 85 races the engines without turbochargers had a real chance of winning. The last time was in June 1983 in Detroit (Alboreto, Tyrrell). The characteristics of the track, slow and winding, the fuel consumption problems (for the turbos), the possible surprises, probably the pit stops to change quickly deteriorating tyres, could give breath to the less powerful but more agile cars. Among the unknowns of the race is the Ferrari, which slightly improves its starting positions, although it remains far from the top, especially as far as times on the 4218 metres of the track are concerned. Gerhard Berger is eighth, preceded in order by the McLaren duo, Nigel Mansell, Thierry Boutsen, Alessandro Nannini, Ivan Capelli and Riccardo Patrese. Michele Alboreto was tenth, in turn overtaken by Nelson Plquet.
The Maranello team, after Friday's troubles, concentrated its attention above all on tuning the cars for the race, without thinking too much about qualifying. With a technical issue consisting of excessive rear tyre wear (a problem for all competitors), petrol consumption (for the turbo), it was necessary to find compromises in terms of set-up and aerodynamics, given that this circuit requires large ailerons and soft springs for good traction. It seems that the result obtained is satisfactory, but in any case Gerhard Berger and Michele Alboreto (in view also of the fact that overtaking is almost prohibitive), being behind in the grid will start with a limit. The two will have to run a waiting race. But they will have to reckon with that pack mentioned earlier, with Mansell, Boutsen, Nannini and Patrese who, on the wave of the example set by Capelli in Portugal, now feel free to fight for victory. The same Italian driver at the wheel of his fast March could and should be one of the protagonists. A general rehearsal of what could happen, that is, the holding of a hard-fought race, is had in practice, when in the last minutes of qualifying almost all the cars are on the track. The drivers overtake each other, brake each other, insult each other, wave their arms. Riccardo Patrese, irregularly impeded by Julian Bailey in the Tyrrell, brakes sharply and the Englishman with his car flies into him. No damage to the contender, just a $10.000 fine imposed on Riccardo Patrese by the stewards, who reviewing the footage of the episode believe they ascertained in the Italian driver's braking a revenge manoeuvre for Julian Bailey's impropriety. The happiest was Nicola Larinl. The Italian driver is fourteenth, only 0.5 seconds behind Michele Alboreto's Ferrari. The others are almost all nervous, tense. Ayrton Senna, pale and tense, nervously consults the time computer at the end of practice.
"It will be a very tough race because this time the aspirated engines are very close. I don't think we will have problems with the petrol, but with the tyres we will".
Not a word about his teammate, Alain Prost, as he had promised the previous day. The Frenchman, at the same time, holds a small personal press conference.
"It was important to be on the front row. The track is dirty here and it's hard to overtake. My car is not bad, I could have done better if I hadn't run into a lot of traffic. I will start on the left, maybe that is even an advantage, as there is less dust on that side. The ideal line, however, would be in the middle, where the asphalt is clean".
If the atmosphere is not bright in the team that has already won the Constructors' World Championship and will in any case win the Drivers' one, imagine the climate at Ferrari, where the glories of winning the Italian Grand Prix are now forgotten. The two drivers are very cautious in their predictions. Gerhard Berger says:
"I would like to get in the points zone, but it will be a difficult race. This track cannot enhance the skills of an attacker. Also, I went off the track in the corner now dedicated to Enzo Ferrari and ended up straddling a kerb. I also got a good backache. Nothing serious, but it's always an extra trouble. My car is now quite balanced, but I am behind a series of hounds that will certainly not leave my path".
Michele Alboreto's analysis is more in-depth:
"I didn't find a free lap and couldn't do any better. In these days we had a lot of problems, the car is difficult to drive, especially because of the turbo response which is too slow and therefore brutal. But now we have found some good solutions. My aim would be to start with a relatively cautious pace to save petrol and tyres and then accelerate in the finale. Unfortunately, there are no points to overtake".
The problem of overtaking also seemed to worry Mansell, first of the pursuers of Senna and Prost.
“I could have even gone on pole, if it hadn't been for too much traffic. There is only one good spot to pass: at the end of the pit straight. And how will I do that with a car that is definitely less fast on the straight?”
On Sunday 2 October 1988, at the start of the Spanish Grand Prix, Alain Prost takes a good start and fends off an overtaking attempt by Nigel Mansell, who is ready to slip past Ayrton Senna at the first corner. The Brazilian immediately tries to catch up, then passes the Englishman, but he fumbles and is passed on the inside. In the meantime Ivan Capelli starts to attack Riccardo Patrese for fourth place, while Alessandro Nannini is ahead of the two Ferraris of Gerhard Berger and Michele Alboreto, both very good at the start. But for the Italian driver the race was short-lived. While keeping away from the group of Ayrton Senna's immediate pursuers so as not to overheat the engine and save tyres and petrol, Michele Alboreto is forced into yet another retirement, due to engine failure, while in eighth position. In the meantime Alain Prost increases his pace, chased like a shadow by Nigel Mansell. Ayrton Senna, on the other hand, slows down, creating a group of drivers behind him, with Riccardo Patrese and Ivan Capelli close behind. The pace is too high for Thierry Boutsen and Alessandro Nannini, who from lap 29 onwards cleverly prefer to enter the pits to change their now deteriorated tyres, as they cannot catch up with the leading drivers. The same decision is taken by Nelson Piquet. About halfway through, Alain Prost - after being approached on a couple of occasions by Mansell - increases the pace further. Behind them Ivan Capelli, having passed Riccardo Patrese on lap 35, threatens Ayrton Senna. And three laps later, at a spot on the track considered impossible, the Italian driver completes his true masterpiece, an overtake on the inside calibrated to the millimetre. A peremptory manoeuvre of such precision that it puts the Italian driver in the position of having to give way, otherwise he would have behaved incorrectly, causing an accident. Unfortunately, Ivan Capelli remained in third place for a short time, as during lap 45 the engine of his March broke down and Ivan, blameless, was forced to retire. But he gives way to another Italian, Alessandro Nannini, who, after a cautious start (his team-mate Boutsen self-deletes by crashing into Ivan Capelli's car and losing part of the rear wing), proves his skill. First he overtakes Riccardo Patrese, slower on the straight, then he also passes Ayrton Senna in the very same place where he had managed to pass Ivan Capelli.
In the tyre change sequence not much changes, and only Riccardo Patrese does not stop to change tyres. Alain Prost continues his solo ride, fending off the attacks of Nigel Mansell. The Englishman eventually settles for second place, also struggling with a clutch that was breaking down. Alain Prost won the Spanish Grand Prix, followed by Nigel Mansell, Alessandro Nannini and Ayrton Senna, who, having entered the pits last to make the tyre change, then caught up with Riccardo Patrese and Gerhard Berger who were ahead of him. The 'Professor' strikes again: he wins his 34th victory in Formula 1 and puts another brick in the wall that could prevent Ayrton Senna from winning the World Championship. This is the response of the Spanish Grand Prix that repulses the assault of the aspirated engine cars that will have to wait until next year, when the turbos will retire, to win the races. In fact, in the next two races, Japan and Australia, it will be unthinkable to beat the overpowering McLarens that have won their thirteenth victory of the season. It will therefore still be a fight between Prost and Senna to animate the season finale. The Frenchman's victory was contrasted by the Brazilian's fourth place. The minimum necessary for Ayrton Senna to clarify the situation in the standings. The two adversaries, in fact, do not change the situation: Alain Prost brings his first places to six against Senna's seven, but has to discard 6 of the 9 points taken. So he rises to 84 points and the Brazilian to 79. A five-point disadvantage. Now all Ayrton Senna needs to do is win one race to take the title, as by discarding the single point taken in Portugal he would go to 87, while Alain Prost with a single win would also go to 87 but with one less victory (7-8). As if to say that the Frenchman only has to hope that his team mate does not finish first again. For the rest, a great race by Mansell, the usual very good but unlucky Ivan Capelli and, finally, a concrete Alessandro Nannini, able to get on the podium for a well-deserved third place. And the Ferrari? Withdrawn almost immediately by Michele Alboreto, Gerhard Berger reached the minimum objective of sixth position, certainly slowed down by the problem of petrol consumption. Fresh, almost rejuvenated by a success in which perhaps even he dared not believe, Alain Prost spoke at length after the race, as if to unburden himself.
"It was one of my best races, perhaps the most brilliant of all. I raced on a circuit where my riding style is not perfectly suited to the characteristics of the track. I had to win and I won, achieving the best possible result".
It was truly an attack race for the French driver, in which he used all his energy.
"True, it was by no means a tactical race. I pushed hard from the very first metre. I think I made a perfect start, taking advantage of the best part of the track, the less dirty part. And I was also lucky because Mansell managed to get between me and Senna, avoiding dangerous attacks. Even if then the Englishman proved, as always, to be a tough, very difficult opponent. So much so that he kept me constantly under pressure, I didn't have a moment's respite, except at the end when I had such an advantage that I could control the race. I must say that I had set the car up well on Saturday and in the morning. Little tricks of the trade".
And now the championship?
"The fight for the title still remains open. But Senna always has the upper hand. It is unthinkable that he will end the season without winning at least one more race, given the trend he has had so far. But I can still hope. And that's the beauty of it. The more time passes, the more I get charged up. I went through a very difficult time, starting with the British Grand Prix, but I got through it brilliantly. Let's say that at this point a lot depends on Senna, but I also have my say. I am happy to go a long way to try to win a third title. There will be a lot of pressure on us...".
When it comes to words, the Brazilian is very vague. Was there something wrong with his car?
"Yes, in addition to a bad start I had problems with the fuel gauge that went out immediately. So I couldn't know how to run the race. Anyway, nothing is lost, I will win one of the next two races".
But the Brazilian is black Involto. And now poor Ayrton? Betrayed by the on-board computer, beaten by his team-mate, the Brazilian is trembling, he thinks he might lose a world title that seemed to be his already. If he had not made that mistake at Monza, if he had not been hit by Schlesser's Williams, he might have won the World Championship by now. Instead he now has to sweat, tremble, fight to the end in an incredible nervous tension. Senna, the great sprinter, the announced champion, no longer knows which way to turn. He thought the final part of the season would be a walk in the park, that Alain Prost had lowered his weapons as the Frenchman himself had declared at Francorchamps a month ago. But the situation has changed.
"Well yes, I did not expect that. I at least thought I could fight on equal terms, that I could defend myself, that I could get better results. And to say that I was also quite lucky to get a fourth place that could be very useful for my classification In fact, it will be enough to win one race to close the match with Prost. Now I have to get this victory and it won't be easy. The characteristics of the circuit of Suzuka are favourable to Alain and maybe I will have to wait for Adelaide, the last race, to reach the goal of my life, the world title".
The South American stays on the level of concreteness, does not make any proclamations, does not say that he will close the game immediately in the next race in Japan. After what has happened in the last few races, between Italy, Portugal and Spain, it is certainly better not to get carried away. In three races Ayrton Senna has racked up only four points, too little to consolidate his position. Yet, as he himself says, the situation is not so dramatic in terms of points: there are five points between the leader, Alain Prost, and the pursuer, Ayrton Senna. But the transalpine driver already has twelve results to his credit and has to keep on discarding, while Senna has eleven but the discards will be less heavy, one point in Portugal, three in Spain. Yes, honestly, more competitiveness was expected from the aspirated engine cars. It is true that Nigel Mansell and Alessandro Nannini, respectively second and third at the finish, and Ivan Capelli, eliminated by engine failure while he was attacking and was already in third, gave a great show, they entertained. But their cars, those powered by 3500 cc engines, failed to live up to expectations in the only race they could perhaps win in the year. For the atmospheric engines, we will talk again in 1989, when turbos will no longer be used. There is practically no hope of them winning the race in Japan, and even at Adelaide, on the street circuit, the chances of winning first place are very limited. Only Ferrari disappointed: Gerhard Berger's sixth place is too little to be considered positive. Mannello's team had shown clear signs of progress on the fast circuits, but on the slow ones it was still far behind in terms of fuel consumption. Michele Alboreto was eliminated by a minor trouble, the breaking of a water pipe, but in the end the engine failed completely. Gerhard Berger, on the other hand, could have had a much livelier race, but with the petrol counted he could not get further than sixth place. Too bad for the fans of the Maranello team, who had already been under the illusion that they would see an exciting end to the season. But the World Championship is not over yet: it was in Japan and Australia last year that Gerhard Berger scored two victories. Says the Austrian driver:
"There was nothing to do, the car was difficult to drive in the fast corners, the engine response unsatisfactory and the fuel consumption really on the limit. I didn't even have a chance to attack Patrese in the final".
A place on the podium was deservedly won by Alessandro Nannini:
"My start was not the best and so I found myself last among the cars leading the race. Staying in the slipstream gave me a lot of problems with understeer because the aerodynamics were disturbed. I then decided to anticipate the pit stop for the tyre change and I think this manoeuvre allowed me to take third place. I also tried to attack Mansell for the place of honour but he was much faster".
Ivan Capelli, too, had climbed to third place with a masterful run after overtaking drivers of the calibre of Riccardo Patrese and Ayrton Senna.
"The car was perfect, and when I passed Senna I was sure I could finish among the very first. It was difficult with Patrese who kept me behind for a long time with a lot, maybe too much agonism, also because from lap 12 I was clutch-less. Then I attacked him in the fast section, where he didn't expect it. The engine betrayed me suddenly, without warning".
Even Riccardo Patrese was able to fight from the first to the last metre.
"I tried to pass Senna several times, but on the straight he was gaining enough metres to defend himself in the mixed section of the track. I was close to the Brazilian and maybe that's why I chose not to change tyres".
Alain Prost managed to cancel Ayrton Senna's first match-ball. In the great challenge for the Formula One World Championship victory, the Brazilian would have only needed a victory in the Spanish Grand Prix to practically close the deal. But the Frenchman, obliged to win to stay in the race, responded in masterly fashion. Senna took the blow well, and immediately left for a week's holiday in Brazil, at home, to relax ahead of the final squeeze in Japan and Australia. But before boarding his Jet, the South American driver wants to know exactly what happened to his car that did not take him beyond fourth place. For an hour and forty minutes Ayrton Senna remains confabulating after the race with the McLaren and Japanese Honda engineers. The Brazilian reviews, line by line, the telemetry printouts, checking the figures. Then he leaves without much comment, saying:
"I didn't get the points I needed to prepare for the final victory with a straight win in one of the last two races".
But in Formula One circles there are whispers, there are murmurs, there are suspicions. There is a case that still has no solution, a pile of unanswered questions. How is it possible that McLaren, having dominated, the championship cannot make two equally competitive cars. Why did Alain Prost appear in difficulty, with an inferior car, on five tracks - Silverstone, Hockenheim, Budapest, Spa and Monza - always complaining of engine problems, while Ayrton Senna lost on two circuits congenial to him like Estoril and Jerez, due to the on-board computer erroneously signalling to him a higher consumption of petrol than that required to get to the end? Some people think that Honda, supplier of the engines, can pre-set the results. Technically it would not be impossible: with electronic mapping, it would be enough to change one parameter to alter the performance or at least the data received by the on-board computer. Nelson Plquet claims that the Japanese company has different engines, e.g. some with long strokes and small pistons, others with short strokes and large pistons. Honda's engineer Goto denies this, at least partially:
"Sometimes we experiment, but not in racing, where all our drivers have the same engines".
The fact remains that the mystery deepens. But there is one plausible hypothesis: perhaps the hand-wringing is just the result of trying to carry the duel through to the end. With the hope that in the decisive race the two adversaries will have equal means to honour their undoubted prowess.